Israel’s desperate ultimatum to Lebanon threatens to ignite a regional inferno

The drums of war are beating once again, but this time the rhythm feels more desperate and the consequences far more terrifying. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stark ultimatum to Lebanon: disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025 or face a new, forceful Israeli military campaign. The US is prepared to join this fight. Why is Israel pushing for a conflict that could spiral out of control, and who truly stands to benefit from a war that would set the entire Middle East ablaze? The answers point to a dangerous alliance and a geopolitical game where American soldiers and the global economy are the pawns.

Key points:

• Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has threatened a new war in Lebanon if Hezbollah is not disarmed by the end of 2025.
• The U.S. is actively backing this threat, pressuring the Lebanese government to confront Hezbollah, even at the risk of civil war.
• Israel’s military is optimized for short conflicts and is suffering from significant attrition and manpower shortages.
• This push for war is seen by some analysts as part of a larger strategy to involve the U.S. in a direct confrontation with Iran.
• A wider war could trigger a global energy crisis, with oil prices potentially skyrocketing to $250 per barrel.

A military stretched to its breaking point

Beneath the public bravado lies a struggling military force. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), long hailed as an invincible regional power, are showing severe cracks. Their entire structure was built for brief, intense conflicts, not the grinding war of attrition they now face. This has led to significant soldier attrition, including tragic cases of suicide, which are now impacting the nation’s economy. The IDF is so strained for personnel that it has resorted to drafting Orthodox Jews, a group previously exempt from service.

This move is fraught with internal conflict, as the IDF’s “woke” culture is a deterrent for many Orthodox recruits. This is not the image of a unified, unstoppable army. Recent engagements have revealed a troubling new reality; Hezbollah is effectively decimating Israeli forces along the border, inflicting heavy casualties and forcing retreats. This is a far cry from 2006, when Israeli forces advanced rapidly toward Beirut. The resistance group has grown stronger, and Israel can no longer achieve significant territorial gains or impose its will through military force as it once did.

The greater Israel agenda and America’s role

Why then would a nation with a strained military seek to open another major front? The answer may lie in a vision that extends far beyond Lebanon’s borders. For decades, a concept known as “Greater Israel” has circulated among certain Zionist circles. This vision includes territorial claims over parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, all of Lebanon, portions of Syria and Iraq, and even Turkey.

It is an ambition Israel cannot achieve alone. To realize this expansionist dream, Israel requires the full military might of the United States. This is not a new strategy. The events following 9/11, including the suspicious destruction of Building Seven, were used as a pretext to launch a “war on terror” that conveniently targeted Israel’s primary enemies in the Middle East.

While that war removed leaders like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, it ultimately failed to secure lasting dominance. Now, the target is Iran. The belief is that for Greater Israel to become a reality, the U.S. must be maneuvered into a direct confrontation with Tehran. This explains the massive political donations from pro-Israel billionaires like Sheldon Adelson, who reportedly gave $100 billion to Trump’s campaign with specific demands to appoint individuals who would prioritize Israeli interests. We now see a “war cabinet” forming that includes a Secretary of Defense described as both a fighter and a Zionist, a man expected to put Israel first.

The catastrophic cost of a manufactured war

If this plan succeeds and the U.S. is led into a war with Iran, the consequences will be catastrophic for the world. Iran has a powerful retaliatory card to play: global energy supply. By closing the Strait of Hormuz and damaging oil fields in allied nations, Iran could send crude oil prices soaring to an estimated $250 per barrel. Imagine gasoline at $20 per gallon in California and Europe, already reeling from the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, facing a complete collapse of its natural gas supply.

While the West struggles with economic chaos, Russia would be the primary beneficiary, watching its oil and gas export revenues triple, amassing hundreds of billions in excess wealth as its adversaries bleed each other dry. The human cost would be staggering. Some military analysts predict the potential loss of 50,000 American troops if Iran retaliates against U.S. bases, a casualty count that would surpass the entire Vietnam War. And what would be the American people’s reward for this sacrifice? Anyone who dares to question why we are dying for Israel risks being labeled an anti-Semite. There is a concerted effort to criminalize dissent against Zionism, using the same censorship tactics the left employed, but now under the guise of fighting anti-Semitism. The Department of Homeland Security could be weaponized to silence American citizens, just as peace activists and Free Palestine movements take to the streets to protest the return of soldiers in flag-draped coffins. The path Israel and its allies in Washington are choosing is not about security; it is about a dangerous ideology that threatens to consume the Middle East and sacrifice American lives and prosperity on the altar of expansionist ambition.

Sources include:

TheCradle.co

Naharnet.com

TheCradle.co